In September 2024, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in the market was less than 300000 units, with a year-on-year decline of over 20%, showing no signs of a "peak season". Meanwhile, with monthly sales experiencing a year-on-year decline for four consecutive months, the cumulative sales growth of commercial vehicles in 2024 has entered a downward trend after September. Due to the breach of contract by "Golden Nine", the performance of "Silver Ten" will greatly affect the year-end performance of the commercial vehicle market in 2024. Unfortunately, 'Silver Ten' also failed to keep its promise.

In October, the sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 298000 units, an increase of 5% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 18% compared to the same period last year. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 298000 units in October 2024, a slight increase of 5% compared to September this year, but continued to decline year-on-year, with a decrease of 18%. The year-on-year decline narrowed compared to the previous month (-23%) and experienced a "five consecutive declines".

Looking at the sales volume and growth trend chart of commercial vehicles in October of the past five years, it can be seen that the commercial vehicle market in October of the past five years has shown a trend of increase decrease increase decrease. The sales volume of commercial vehicles in October of the past five years has shown three levels: the level of over 400000 vehicles in October 2020 is at a high level; The over 300000 vehicles in October 2021 and October 2023 are at a moderate level; The remaining sales in October 2022 and October of this year were less than 300000 units, which is at a low level. From a numerical perspective alone, the level of 298000 vehicles in the commercial vehicle market in October this year ranks only second to last in the past five years, with a gap of nearly 170000 vehicles compared to the highest level in October 2020, and only 20000 vehicles higher than the lowest level in October 2022. If the timeline is further extended, the sales of 298000 vehicles in the commercial vehicle market in October this year are lower than those in October 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016. The last time the commercial vehicle market sold less than 300000 vehicles in October (except for October 2022) was in 2015. Therefore, from a numerical perspective, the peak season of "golden September and silver October" in the commercial vehicle market in 2024 can be said to be non-existent.

From the perspective of cumulative sales, the commercial vehicle market in 2024 only exceeded 2 million units after June, and only surpassed 3 million units after October, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. In the past five years, it is also the second to last, with a gap of over one million units compared to the highest period in 2020 from January to October, and an increase of about 430000 units compared to the lowest period in 2022 from January to October. It is 113200 units less than the cumulative sales from January to October last year. After September, the cumulative sales growth of the commercial vehicle market this year has entered a downward trend, and after October, the cumulative sales decline has expanded to 3% (as shown in the above figure). At the end of the year, the pressure on the commercial vehicle market is high, and the possibility of ending 2024 with a declining performance is increasing.

Foton maintains its top spot with a reverse increase, while Dongfeng/Heavy Duty Truck exceeds 24000 vehicles to compete in the top two

In October 2024, there were 11 companies in the commercial vehicle market with sales exceeding 10000 vehicles, and the number of companies with monthly sales exceeding 10000 vehicles increased by one compared to September. Foton Motor won the monthly chart championship with a performance of 55900 vehicles, securing its 9th monthly chart championship in the commercial vehicle market this year.

Sales Table of Commercial Vehicle Market in October 2024 (Unit: Vehicles)

As shown in the table above, in October 2024, the commercial vehicle market decreased by 18% year-on-year, narrowing the year-on-year decline by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month (-23%). As in previous months, the sales of mainstream commercial vehicle companies in October continued to increase and decrease compared to the same period last year. The top ten companies in terms of sales in October saw 4 increases and 6 decreases: Foton, Changan, Jiangling Motors, and Long Range increased their sales by 6%, 13%, 26%, and 12% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, Jiangling Motors and Long Range maintained a counter trend continuous increase, with Long Range experiencing a "3 consecutive increases" and Jiangling Motors reaching an "8 consecutive increases". At the same time, five of the companies that experienced a year-on-year decline had double-digit declines, and the company with the most severe decline saw a 39% year-on-year decrease in sales in October. From the perspective of year-on-year growth rate, the commercial vehicle market in October presented a scene of both joy and sorrow.

In terms of market share, the top ten companies in terms of sales in October had a total share of 75.77%, while the top five companies had a total share of over 50%, reaching 50.74%. In October, there was still only one company with a market share of over 10% in the commercial vehicle market, and the top ranked Foton seized 18.76% of the October commercial vehicle market with a sales volume of 55900 units; Dongfeng, Heavy Duty Truck Group, Changan, and Jiangling Motors, ranked 2-5, also have sales exceeding 20000 vehicles, with monthly shares of 8.93%, 8.17%, 7.97%, and 6.92% respectively. Several companies, especially Dongfeng and Heavy Duty Truck Group, ranked 2-3, are still fiercely competing for the second place; Ranked 6th on the October monthly chart is Jiefang, with sales of 19600 units and a monthly share of 6.58%; Jianghuai ranked 7th on the October monthly list with 16500 vehicles and a monthly share of 5.52%; Remote, Great Wall, and Shaanxi Automobile ranked 8-10 on the monthly list with 13300, 12900, and 12300 vehicles respectively, with monthly shares of 4.48%, 4.32%, and 4.13%, respectively.

In October, the gap between adjacent companies in the commercial vehicle industry was not large, with only 0.76% difference in market share between China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Dongfeng Motor, 0.34% difference in market share between Jiefang and Jiangling Motors, 0.20% difference in market share between Changan and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, 0.20% difference between Shaanxi Automobile Group and Great Wall Motors, and 0.16% difference in monthly market share between Great Wall Motors and Yuancheng in October. The seat competition in the commercial vehicle market is very exciting and stimulating every month of 2024.

From the perspective of the industry landscape, the top ten members of the commercial vehicle sales ranking in October are different from last month, and the ranking has also undergone significant changes: Jiefang has returned to the top ten of the monthly list, ranking 6th in October and rising by 5 places (Jiefang ranked 11th in September); China National Heavy Duty Truck Group rose one place, from fourth place on the September monthly list to third place on the October monthly list; Jiangling Motors and Long Range have both risen one place, with Jiangling rising from sixth place in September to fifth place in October, and Long Range rising from ninth place in September to eighth place in October. At the same time, several companies have experienced a decline in their rankings, with some companies temporarily being squeezed out of the top ten of the monthly list. The only companies with unchanged rankings are Futian and Dongfeng, which are in the top two. Accumulated sales from January to October decreased by 3%, while Changan/Jiangling/Jiefang/Jianghuai and others experienced a reverse increase. From January to October 2024, the commercial vehicle market sold a total of 3.1901 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, which is approximately 113200 vehicles less than the cumulative sales from January to October last year. After September, this figure was 46500 vehicles less than the cumulative sales, and after August, it was 40600 vehicles more than the cumulative sales. Looking specifically at the top ten companies in terms of cumulative sales (which differs from the top ten companies in October), Foton's cumulative sales have approached 500000 vehicles, reaching 486500 vehicles; Dongfeng's cumulative sales exceeded 300000 vehicles, reaching 312200 vehicles; Changan, CNHTC, and Jiefang have all sold over 200000 vehicles, reaching 294900, 285300, and 215800 vehicles respectively; Jianghuai, Wuling, Jiangling and other enterprises have accumulated sales of over 150000 vehicles, reaching 196600 vehicles, 187700 vehicles and 177200 vehicles respectively; The cumulative sales of Great Wall Motors and Shaanxi Automobile have both exceeded 130000 vehicles, reaching 145000 and 137700 vehicles respectively. From the perspective of cumulative sales growth, the majority of companies are still in the upward trend (as shown in the above figure). Among them, Changan and Jiangling Motors' cumulative sales from January to October this year increased by 12% and 14% year-on-year, respectively, making them the only two companies among the top ten in terms of cumulative sales of commercial vehicles with double-digit cumulative growth. Liberation, Jianghuai, Shaanxi Automobile, and Heavy Duty Truck Group are the other companies that have achieved cumulative sales growth, all with single digit cumulative growth. At the same time, there are also four companies whose cumulative sales are in a declining range, with the most se